Coastsiders estimate highway repair will take 103 days


By on Tue, April 18, 2006

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The average guess in our "I know when Devil’s Slide will open!" contest was 103 days from its closure on Sunday, April 2. If you buy into "The Wisdom of Crowds", that’s as good an estimate as any in a world where Caltrans isn’t talking much.  Half of the estimates were greater than 92 days and half were less. If that estimate were correct, the Slide would be open July 17

14. [CORRECTION]

We had 171 entries, and to calculate the average, we eliminated four guesses that amounted to "never".

Coastsiders closer to the Slide were much more interested in the survey than those in Half Moon Bay. About 40% of the respondents were from Montara and Moss Beach, while about 30% of Coastsider readers come from those communities. Only 16% of the respondents were from Half Moon Bay, which contains half the Coastside’s population.

The survey took place after a week of horrible traffic. About half the respondents said they were responding to the traffic by leaving earlier in the morning, and we saw the traffic jams backing up earlier and earlier that week. A third are working at home, ten percent say they are carpooling, and none are taking public transportation.

The winner of our little contest receives a $100 gift certificate at the Half Moon Bay Brewing Company.  We’ll announce the winner when the Slide has opened.

Click the link to find our how people are adjusting to the new commute, and some comments on how else losing the Slide has affected their lives.

DISCLOSURE: This isn’t science, this is a game.

What changes have you made to adjust for the closing of the Slide?

50.3%Leave earlier in the morning
32.5%Leave later in the morning
26.1%Return earlier in the afternoon
24.2%Return later in the afternoon
9.6%Carpool
0%Take public transportation
32.5%Work at home
14.6%I don’t have to change because I don’t commute or take kids to school

 

Selected answers to the question "How else has the closing of the Slide affected your life?"

My house is for sale. Who is going to buy a house in Montara right now, knowing they face a 2-3 hour commute?

It has made me rethink my resources on the coast. We’ve lived here less than a year and have still been driving to the city for most everything. I’ve discovered a great cappuccino at the Hardware Store in El Granada and a couple liquor stores that are actually nice little markets. Thanks to UPS & Fed Ex, cuz what I can’t find, I order online. I’m not driving in that mess unless it’s a medical appointment for my little ones.

I teach at the high school, but I also have kids that go to Farallone View. I have been leaving earlier in the morning to take them to Montara and then in order to make it to the high school in time, I drive south as far as El Granada and then from El Granada I ride my bike the rest of the way to the high school. I pass a ton of cars on the and it’s the only way I can make it on time!

Sigh. It makes my life far more complicated and stressed.

It is making me question both my and our communities preparedness for an earthquake. The city of HMB and the coast didn’t seem very well equipped to deal with this…it makes me a little nervous about being isolated by a quake. I plan to re-stock our emergency supplies. Haven’t decided yet what I think we should do as a community to be prepared.

It sucks, and makes my day more stressful. It is interesting, what sort of community we live in.

It’s nice and quiet!

The worst part is starting the day stressed - knowing that if you don’t get up even earlier before o’dark hundred, your whole commute is going to be even worse!!! So much for coffee and morning radio to keep one amused on the long commute. Truthfully, I keep balanced by saying Hurricane Katrina over and over. This is an inconvenience (not to disavow the serious financial consequences for many) but the majority of us still have our homes, our families and our jobs. And we still know that after the long commute home, we still enjoy the most beautiful community and neighbors in the world.

My quality of life is gone. Moving to El Granada was a very bad idea.

I’m purchasing more wine!

It has made me realize why I drive "over the hill" to do my grocery shopping. The Safeway in HMB, even with its makeover, is simply sub-standard. I don’t think anyone there ever checks a date on perishables, nor do they care that they place your carefully selected avocados, tomatoes, etc., on the bottom of the bag and then throw some can foods on top of it. You have salsa by the time you get your groceries home - that could be okay, as long as the chips weren’t not at the bottom also ;)

Reading a lot of e mails

The entire family is functioning on less sleep. Also, we are not planning to leave home much on the weekends after the long travel times during the week.


I would like to post your survey results (just the list of percentages) in CoastViews Magazine with appropriate credit. It would be in our letter from the publisher column.

Could you let me know as soon as you read this as we go to press tonight?

<email>[email protected]</email>

thanks very much

Gwen O’Neill
Publisher

Traffic really sucks but I keep telling myself it’s only temporary…..not much more I can say.  In perspective, this is nothing compared to those that have lost their homes or worse.  I know that this inconvenience will be over at some point.  In the end, I still wouldn’t want to live anywhere else in the Bay Area and now I get Montara beach mostly to myself.

Barry wrote:
“If you buy into `The Wisdom of Crowds,’ that’s as good an estimate as any…”


As a counterpoint to the provided link to James Surowiecki’s book of the same name, it’s perhaps worth keeping in mind the alternative view, often associated with the classic book by Charles Mackay: “Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds” 

http://www.cashncarrion.co.uk/products/4406/208/